How the War in Sudan is Eroding the Nation's Future

The Human Cost of War in Sudan

Sudan has been engulfed in civil war for three years, leading to a staggering humanitarian catastrophe. Over 40,000 individuals have lost their lives, while approximately 14 million people, nearly a quarter of the nation’s population, have been displaced. The war has devastated the country's infrastructure, severely impacting agriculture, industry, and essential services. As a result, Sudan's economy is suffering a historic collapse, which is projected to worsen unless peace is achieved soon.

Luca Renda, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) resident representative in Sudan, highlighted the dire situation, stating, "We are not just facing a crisis—we are witnessing the systematic erosion of a country’s future."

Economic Collapse and Disruption

Economic Impact of the War

A recent report from the UNDP warns that Sudan has faced an economic loss of $6.4 billion in GDP in 2023 alone. The conflict stems from a power struggle between army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and paramilitary leader Mohamad Hamdan Dagalo, which has led to extensive destruction across all sectors of the economy. The report suggests that even in an optimistic scenario where peace is achieved by 2026, Sudan could still face a total GDP loss of around $18.8 billion by 2043.

Destruction of Infrastructure

The ongoing fighting has devastated agricultural lands, transportation networks, and essential services, causing a 15% reduction in cultivated land. Industrial activity has plummeted by nearly 90%, and power generation capabilities have fallen by up to 40%, leaving many areas without access to basic utilities such as clean water. Renda notes, "The destruction of infrastructure not only triggers displacement but also makes it extremely difficult for people to secure adequate housing or access basic services once displaced."

Effects on Livelihoods

Rural communities, which relied heavily on agriculture, have been hit particularly hard. With average incomes returning to levels last seen in 1992, millions are now struggling to survive. The once-thriving informal economy has also contracted significantly, leading to widespread job losses and halting small businesses. Displacement exacerbates these issues, leaving affected populations in dire need of basic resources.

Crisis in the Oil Sector

The oil industry, crucial for Sudan’s economy, has also suffered severely. The Khartoum refinery, which processed up to 100,000 barrels per day, has been offline since mid-2023 due to damage from incessant fighting. Pipeline routes have been damaged, further constricting Sudan’s oil output.

Rise in Living Costs

The collapse of the Sudanese pound has driven living costs skyrocketing. Before the war, the currency was valued at approximately 570 pounds per dollar, but it has plummeted to between 3,500 and 3,600 pounds today. Consequently, food prices have surged; for instance, the cost of staple goods such as bread has risen dramatically, pushing many families into acute food insecurity. Nearly half the population faces food shortages, with 90% of displaced households unable to afford sufficient food.

A Bleak Future Awaits

Humanitarian Impact

The ongoing war has led to the loss of health services and education for millions. Over 5.6 million children have been born since the start of the conflict, often into environments with non-functional healthcare facilities. 19 million children face severe disruptions in their education, with only 20% of schools operational in some regions.

As the UNDP warns, if the war continues in its current state until 2030, Sudan’s economy could shrink by $34.5 billion compared to what it could have been. The total number of people living in extreme poverty may exceed 60%, further deepening the country's struggles.

The Call for Peace

Renda paints a grim picture of the future, emphasizing that continued conflict means deeper, irreversible damage to Sudan's societal fabric. He stresses the urgent need for peace, stating that, "Every additional month costs lives and deepens structural damage."

The choices made today regarding the future of Sudan will be pivotal in determining whether the trajectory of the country can still be reversed. As the nation faces an unprecedented crisis, the international community's response and internal leadership will be critical in shaping the ensuing landscape.