Pete Crow-Armstrong's Struggles: Analyzing His Dramatic Slump

A Star in Decline

Pete Crow-Armstrong, a center fielder for the Chicago Cubs, has found himself in the midst of a crushing slump, posting a mere .195 batting average since August 2022. Just a shorter while ago, he appeared to be a rising star in Major League Baseball (MLB), securing a massive $115 million contract after an impressive start to the 2025 season. However, his performance has since declined dramatically, leaving fans and analysts alike questioning his future.

The Numbers Don't Lie

Crow-Armstrong’s statistics tell a deeply troubling story. In the 67 games following August 2 last year, he slashed a disappointing .195/.243/.290. Among the 149 qualified hitters in the league, his weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) stood at a staggering low of 47— the worst in baseball. For comparison, fellow Rockies outfielder Jordan Beck comes next at a wRC+ of 55. His .270 expected weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) ranks him 145th, while his actual wOBA of .234 is, again, dead last.

Even worse, his isolated power metric at .095 ranks 135th, and with a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .246, he sits 130th, signifying a staggering drop in his effectiveness at the plate.

A Shrinking Walk Rate and Rising Strikeouts

One area of concern is Crow-Armstrong’s approach at the plate. His walk rate has diminished to 4.4%, landing him in the 140th spot in the league, starkly trailing the average of about 9%. Subsequently, his performance metrics have plummeted, as indicated by his -15.9 runs above average according to Fangraphs, also the worst in the league. This marks a significant turnaround from his earlier success, which had fans heralding him as a future MVP candidate.

During the first half of the 2025 season, Crow-Armstrong was a force to be reckoned with. He hit an impressive .273/.309/.560 with 27 home runs and 31 doubles over 107 games, showcasing his talent with a wRC+ of 137 and a 5.4 fWAR—among the best in the league. Unfortunately, the tail end of that season bore witness to a larger collapse.

The Collapse and Challenges Ahead

In his last 50 games of 2025, his batting statistics crumbled to .185/.236/.289, including only four home runs and 17 RBIs, culminating in a wRC+ of 44—again the worst in MLB. While he has had moments of improvement recently by collecting three hits over his last two games, the slump has been persistently entrenched and shows little sign of full recovery.

Crow-Armstrong's typical aggressive nature has taken a downturn; his chase rate—pursuing pitches outside the strike zone—has increased to 49.2% this season, contrasting sharply with the league average of roughly 30%. Simultaneously, his swing rate at strikes has dropped from 80.4% to 70.9%, revealing a troubling inconsistency in his approach.

Long-Term Outlook

As analysts critique whether the Cubs committed to a fleeting version of Crow-Armstrong, the disparity between his rookie numbers and early-season performance raises pressing questions. His first full season featured a slump and a wRC+ of 86, indicating that the stellar first half of 2025 might not be indicative of his potential moving forward. Crow-Armstrong is still only 24 years old, and history has countless examples of players who made successful comebacks from similar slumps.

While it remains theoretically possible for him to rectify his approach and regain form, the growing suspicion is that the Cubs might have paid for a temporary illusion, rather than a consistent star. Currently, neither the stellar contract nor Crow-Armstrong’s performance is yielding the desired results for Chicago.

As the season unfolds, fans and management alike will be watching closely to see if Crow-Armstrong can reclaim his position and prove his early success wasn’t simply a mirage.